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Workshop description and registration |
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FINANCIAL, DECISION AND RISK ANALYSIS FOR DITCH COMPANIES
Colorado Water Congress Annual Convention
Pre-convention Workshop
When: Wed, Jan. 28, 2009
1 to 5 p.m.
Where: Hyatt Regency - Denver Tech Center
7800 East Tufts Avenue
Denver, Colorado
Cost: $50 for DARCA/CWC members;
$100 for non-members
Four ways to register:
1. Phone: (970) 412-1960
2. Mail check or credit card information to: 1630A 30th St., #431 Boulder, CO 80301
3. Fax credit card information to: (303) 516-1202
4. Through Google Checkout
Sound financial and decision analyses are critical for the success of ditch and reservoir companies. In the context of Colorado water, we are awash in huge amounts of data and the problems facing ditch companies are complex. Cutting edge methods - employed routinely in other industries throughout corporate America - are not being used to their full potential to solve these Colorado water problems. Decision makers may view these problems and their solutions as linear and sequential when in fact the very nature of the inherent decisions may be more simultaneous, interdependent, or involve uncertainty. Decision and policy makers often throw up their hands and opt for a back of the envelope approach when these problems become too complex. However, affordable solutions can be obtained for most problems with appropriate problem solving skills and the use of desktop computers.
The workshop will begin by explaining traditional methods for analyzing projects using the concepts of present value of costs and benefits. Problems arising out of using average values and the assumption of normality will be discussed. Participants will learn why it is important to think about and how to analyze events in the context of risk. They will learn how risk analysis is carried out in leading companies around the world. A tour of various analytical methods and applications including those involving uncertainty will be demonstrated.
The social dimensions of decision making, often overlooked, are complements of analytical skills. These social or psychological aspects within business organizations often thwart an optimal decision making process. It is necessary for analysts and managers to be able to become aware of and identity the pitfalls at arriving at optimal decisions. You will learn how to recognize what goes on in the social process of making decisions and how to avoid the traps encountered along the decision making path.
John McKenzie, Huybert Groenendaal, Ph.D., and Francisco Zagmitt, DVM,will team teach the course. John is the Executive Director of DARCA and the founder of Innovastat Corporation. John has extensive experience, nationally and internationally, in data analysis, simulation, optimization and forecasting. Huybert is a partner in the international consulting firm, Vose Consulting, having offices in the U.S., Belgium, and Russia. His firm provides risk analysis training, consulting services, and software to clients all over world involved in agriculture, energy, finance, manufacturing, etc. Francisco is a senior risk analyst with Vose.
* Traditional Methods of Evaluating Projects - discount rate, present value, net present value, internal rate of return, and benefit/cost analysis
* What is the Flaw of Averages and What Can You Do About It?
* Identifying and Thinking About Events in the Context of Uncertainty
* Traditional Approaches and Why They May Not be Beneficial – single point estimates, sensitivity analysis, scenario analysis, pitfalls in assuming normality
* Quantifying Uncertainty - derived from historical or forecasted data, derived from expert opinion
* Success Stories of Adopters
* Analytical Methods, Applications, and Software Tools Monte Carlo Simulation, Optimization, Optimization Under Uncertainty (simulation optimization & stochastic optimization), Real Options, Decision Trees, Six Sigma, Regression Analysis (time series, cross sectional, discrete choice)
* The Psychology of Decision Making How people actually make decisions and how rational are decision makers? Pitfalls of decision making within groups and behavioral traps. Correlation, causation, and chance results. Perceived and actual risks. Biases, framing issues and overconfidence in decision making.
The Financial, Decision and Risk Analysis workshop is sponsored by Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck, P.C., Leonard Rice Engineers, Inc., and the Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District.
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